Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
